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Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Oct 13, 19:45
by Len Wood
Have had just 15.7 mm to 13th so far this month.
Average for Wembury 1984 to 2014 is 114 mm.

Previous driest October was 43 mm in 1985,
and 52 mm in 2007.

Looking at the persistent blocking in the forecast it could be a new record for October,
only half way through the month though.

Re: Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Oct 13, 20:14
by greg_gruner
21.8mm so far in Farnborough (average 79mm). October is normally the wettest month here, but the English weather always surprises us!
GFS charts show general blocking until around the 26th, so it may turn out to be a dry month.

Re: Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Oct 14, 18:38
by Nick Gardner
Just checked my rain gauge data and it shows that 15.9 mm has fallen here this month.

The Davis AWS is reporting 17.6 mm, most of the extra due to dewfall that doesn't seem to occur in the manual gauge.

My very estimated October average rainfall is 89.0 mm and this month is usually a dramatic change from the dryness of the summer and September with things starting to become rather damp by now. Instead, the garden is quite dry and even the grass growth has slowed down a little from its normal rapid October pace. I suspect the dry soil is behind this as well as the shortening days.

Only 22.4 mm has fallen since the 16th of September.

Re: Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Oct 15, 19:12
by Graham Easterling
13.6mm so far this October. Also sunny, even on top of the nearby moors, approximately 30 hours of sunshine in the last 4 days

The 1981-2010 October norm is 136mm. 5 Octobers in the last 25 years (1998, 2000, 2004, 2012 & 2013) have exceeded 190mm. (November is the wettest month of the year here.)

Driest Octobers in the last 25 years:-
1999 44.4mm
2007 50.0mm
1997 94.1mm

Oct/Nov/Dec are the peak months for 'Pembroke danglers'. (see http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/DanglerFinal.PDF ) due to relative warmth of the sea. On a number of occasions I have recorded >25mm of rain in 24 hours, when there has been none over Cornwall east of Truro.

Yes, this month is most unusual.

Penzance in October http://www.cornwallcam.co.uk/recently.htm

Re: Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Oct 27, 20:09
by Len Wood
Received 26.4 mm in my 5 inch gauge today 18 to 1800 GMT.

That makes 49.6 mm for the month so far.

One 24 hr total can scupper any chance of an October record.
Still looks as though it will be a below average rainfall month though.

Re: Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Oct 27, 22:30
by Richard Hunt
I've had 34.7mm (5" gauge) up to 2200 UTC on the 27th.

The average for October at this site is 57.7mm (Records for this area back to 1964).

The driest October was 1969 with 11.0mm.

Re: Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Oct 31, 23:01
by Len Wood
Total for the month was 79.5 mm.
That's 70% of average.

But, 70% of that total fell in the last 4 days of the month.

Re: Unusual October dryness

PostPosted: 2015 Nov 03, 19:15
by Nick Gardner
Rainfall total for October ended up at 52.0 mm, that is around 59% of my very estimated LTA. Most of that total fell in the last 5 days with 23 days having no recordable rainfall. Annual rainfall total now at 620 mm.

October rainfall:
2014 = 88 mm
2013 = 153 mm
2012 = 126 mm
2011 = 71 mm
2010 = 83 mm
2009 = 87 mm
2008 = 136 mm
2007 = 38 mm
2006 = 148 mm

So this October wasn't quite as dry as 2007. On average, October, along with November really are wet (but mild/warm) months and since 2005 have been the wettest two months of the year by quite a margin.