Guardian article

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Guardian article

Postby Tudor Hughes » 2012 Jul 12, 02:49

More options Jul 11, 3:06 pm

Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
From: Tudor Hughes <tudor...@aol.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 07:06:43 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Jul 11 2012 3:06 pm
Subject: Guardian article
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In today's Guardian (Wed 11/7) there is a piece about the weather, mainly
flooding, but it also says this: "The Met Office published research
that showed that recent extreme weather events were closely linked to
man-made climate change" and quotes Peter Stott of the Met Office in
similar vein.
It would be interesting to see the original papers. Can anyone help me to find them?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey
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Re: Guardian article

Postby Martin Rowley » 2012 Jul 12, 08:33

Tudor Hughes wrote:More options Jul 11, 3:06 pm

In today's Guardian (Wed 11/7) there is a piece about the weather, mainly
flooding, but it also says this: "The Met Office published research
that showed that recent extreme weather events were closely linked to
man-made climate change" and quotes Peter Stott of the Met Office in
similar vein.
It would be interesting to see the original papers. Can anyone help me to find them?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey


You may have seen these links Tudor, so apologies if I'm going over old ground, but from the original Met Office press release here:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... he-climate

it links to this joint Met Office/NOAA-NCDC document here ....

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... -et-al.pdf

which was published by the AMS. Mind you, my reading of that particular paper (there are of course many references at the bottom which I haven't ploughed through), is that they are very careful NOT to attribute all 'extreme' events to 'man-made' climate changes. The Guardian may have mis-quoted, or put their own slant on the interview that they undoubtedly did with Stott. I thought the paper was reasonably balanced.

Martin.
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Re: Guardian article

Postby Stephen Burt » 2012 Jul 12, 08:35

Tudor, there is a press release on MO website:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... he-climate

This refers to the original papers in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, one of which is online here (8 MB):

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... -et-al.pdf

There's also an article, and a cover feature, in this week's New Scientist. The article is written by Stephen Battersby, although unfortunately it's closer in style to the Daily Wail than New Scientist, and has no real content.

Wearing my other hat, as Chairman of the RMetS SE Centre, I'm pleased to inform readers in advance of the official meetings notice of the Society that Dr Peter Stott, one of the lead authors of this paper and the UK's leading expert on climate event attribution, has kindly accepted an invitation to present an evening talk to the SE Centre next year. This will take place in Reading Town Hall at 7 p.m. on Wednesday 6 March. All are welcome. More details will appear on the Society's website next month along with the rest of the 2012/13 SE Centre programme.

SB
-----
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Re: Guardian article

Postby Tudor Hughes » 2012 Jul 12, 16:06

Martin Rowley wrote:
Tudor Hughes wrote:More options Jul 11, 3:06 pm

In today's Guardian (Wed 11/7) there is a piece about the weather, mainly
flooding, but it also says this: "The Met Office published research
that showed that recent extreme weather events were closely linked to
man-made climate change" and quotes Peter Stott of the Met Office in
similar vein.
It would be interesting to see the original papers. Can anyone help me to find them?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey


You may have seen these links Tudor, so apologies if I'm going over old ground, but from the original Met Office press release here:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... he-climate

it links to this joint Met Office/NOAA-NCDC document here ....

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... -et-al.pdf

which was published by the AMS. Mind you, my reading of that particular paper (there are of course many references at the bottom which I haven't ploughed through), is that they are very careful NOT to attribute all 'extreme' events to 'man-made' climate changes. The Guardian may have mis-quoted, or put their own slant on the interview that they undoubtedly did with Stott. I thought the paper was reasonably balanced.

Martin.


I have now read the paper more or less in its entirety (but not the refs) and agree that it is pretty thorough and fair assessment. The Guardian's interpretation is some way beyond that of the paper, but that's the Guardian for you and I speak as a long-term devoted, if sceptical, reader.
The document's approach is basically statistical and it doesn't go into the much more difficult question of how much circulation types or anomalies may change as a result of a warmer atmosphere.
Being a little pedantic, I could have done without phrases such as "warm temperatures". Sounds a bit illiterate. The temperature is high, the air is warm.

Tudor Hughes.
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