### Percentage probs for precipitation

Posted:

**2014 Sep 23, 18:58**What do people think about the percentage probability for precipitation given by UKMO for a specified location?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... 1411513200

You can get an hourly percentage probability on their website which I think is an improvement from giving just a straight yes or no.

They are of course hedging their bets if the prob is below 50%.

Only if the probability is well above 50% and there is no precipitation can they come in for criticism.

In my experience their postcode rain forecasts are not good, but giving percentage probabilities lets them off the hook a bit.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... 1411513200

You can get an hourly percentage probability on their website which I think is an improvement from giving just a straight yes or no.

They are of course hedging their bets if the prob is below 50%.

Only if the probability is well above 50% and there is no precipitation can they come in for criticism.

In my experience their postcode rain forecasts are not good, but giving percentage probabilities lets them off the hook a bit.