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the next 2 weeks or so

PostPosted: 2012 May 01, 09:18
by john holmes
I find that using the 500mb anomaly charts does give a pretty good idea of what the upper air pattern is likely to be over this time scale. The ECMWF and GFS issue along with that from NOAA are what I refer to.
On another web site I have been running checks, only 10 so far, since mid February (when time allows) and only 2 out of the 10 have not given good or even very good advice.
There is one thing to be wary of. IF the 3 outputs are not showing much the same pattern consistently then the reliability drops off markedly.

As to the next 2 weeks or so-well with the 500mb flow showing itself to be north of west for much of the time, a ridge west of the UK and a trough east of it, then much the same as we have been having is a brief idea. No sign of any major shift in the pattern to allow warmer air to move over the country other than the odd day or two.


Re: the next 2 weeks or so

PostPosted: 2012 May 11, 09:55
by john holmes
10 days later and nothing has really occurred to change my view for most of May-the upper trough anchored close by the UK so unsettled is the theme. Just the odd day possibly 2 when it does as yesterday and edges a touch west which allowed the muggier air to come north with a number of us recording our highest T and Td values for quite some time. Much of the time though as it has been for most of the first 10 days of the month. At least the soil moisture defecits for the dought areas is being topped up. I suspect as time goes on it will overall, at least in southern areas become somewhat warmer overall and a shade less unsettled. Looking good for a late season spurt for the Caingorm ski area?