Cold spell in two weeks time?

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Cold spell in two weeks time?

Postby Len Wood » 2013 Jan 04, 21:17

From UKMO:
UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Saturday 2 Feb 2013:
There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast period,
though there is an increasing probability at this stage of a trend to colder
conditions relative to what we have seen so far this winter. This brings the
risk of spells of colder than average conditions and an increased chance of
wintry weather, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK.


Issued at: 1600 on Fri 4 Jan 2013

The numerical models are predicting sudden stratospheric warming which is linked with blocking, possibly affecting the UK.
Hence the rise in confidence in predicting cold weather.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... r-guidance

We shall see. The present very mild spell cannot continue, the sceptics would say.
Len

Wembury, SW Devon coast
N50.33 W4.13
Altitude 83 m asl
Len Wood
 
Posts: 349
Joined: 2012 Jan 28, 16:12
Location: Wembury, coastal SW Devon, 83 m asl

Re: Cold spell in two weeks time?

Postby greg_gruner » 2013 Jan 05, 15:50

Certainly looks like it will an interesting time, end of Jan/beginning of Feb. The GFS and ECMWF agree in keeping high pressure near the UK until around the 15th, then the GFS shows a weak and very convoluted jet stream, which eventuallly is forecast to go well south over Europe. Surface pressure forecasts show high pressure building between Iceland and Norway, so a cold easterly MIGHT develop. But it's a bit early to say. I am being cautious as I forecast a cold December!! However, end of Jan/early Feb is the coldest time climatologically, so if easterlies/northerlies come at that time it could get very cold indeed.
Greg Gruner
Farnborough, Hampshire
greg_gruner
 
Posts: 224
Joined: 2012 Feb 04, 17:28

Re: Cold spell in two weeks time?

Postby Len Wood » 2013 Jan 18, 20:32

Len Wood wrote:From UKMO:
UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Saturday 2 Feb 2013:
There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast period,
though there is an increasing probability at this stage of a trend to colder
conditions relative to what we have seen so far this winter. This brings the
risk of spells of colder than average conditions and an increased chance of
wintry weather, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK.


Issued at: 1600 on Fri 4 Jan 2013

The numerical models are predicting sudden stratospheric warming which is linked with blocking, possibly affecting the UK.
Hence the rise in confidence in predicting cold weather.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... r-guidance

We shall see. The present very mild spell cannot continue, the sceptics would say.


Not a bad forecast all in all, one could almost say impressive, but whether the cold spell will last to 2 Feb we shall see.
Also, the North and East were given a special mention, but the Midlands and West have also been affected.

Difficult at two weaks out to be that accurate on location in all fairness.
Len

Wembury, SW Devon coast
N50.33 W4.13
Altitude 83 m asl
Len Wood
 
Posts: 349
Joined: 2012 Jan 28, 16:12
Location: Wembury, coastal SW Devon, 83 m asl


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