Met Office summer forecast

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Met Office summer forecast

Postby Len Wood » 2013 May 13, 15:40

On the BBC lunchtime forecast today Tomasz Schafenaker invited people to look on the UKMO website for a summer forecast.
I had understood they did not like giving seasonal forecasts for the general public since the one about the errant BBQ summer.

Anyway I challenge Jo Public to find it on their website.
The only place I know is if you go to Products and Services>Public Sector> Contingency Planners.
If you scroll to the bottom of the page you can download the Temperature and Precipitation Summaries in pdf format for May to July.

A bit of a discussion can be found and plenty of stats.

As far as I can see, they are going for average temp and average rainfall May to July.

Weather across the UK I am sure is going to different north to south and east to west so take it with a pinch of salt.

They do cover themselves by stating:

'This Outlook provides an indication of possible temperature and rainfall conditions over the next 3 months. It is part of a suite of forecasts designed for contingency planners.
The Outlook should not be used in isolation but should be used with shorter-range and more detailed (30-day, 15-day and 1-to-5-day) forecasts and warnings available to the contingency planning community from the Met Office. '
Len

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Re: Met Office summer forecast

Postby Martin Rowley » 2013 May 13, 17:09

Len Wood wrote:On the BBC lunchtime forecast today Tomasz Schafenaker invited people to look on the UKMO website for a summer forecast.
I had understood they did not like giving seasonal forecasts for the general public since the one about the errant BBQ summer.

Anyway I challenge Jo Public to find it on their website.
The only place I know is if you go to Products and Services>Public Sector> Contingency Planners.
If you scroll to the bottom of the page you can download the Temperature and Precipitation Summaries in pdf format for May to July.

<snip>


... Mr. (one-finger) Schafernaker is, once again, sailing close to the wind. I suspect someone will be having a word in his shell-like.

The output he's talking about was updated today (13th May) and can be found here:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cl ... -seas-prob
[not sure if this group will render the url properly ... if it doesn't try ...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cl ... c-outlooks

and follow the appropriate links.

If you play about with the drop-downs, you can see that the general trend for June/July/August is for a signal to lower-than-average temperatures. This has been a consistent theme for the recent output and ties in with the Contingency Forecast you mentioned.

However, I would remind everyone that it was output just like this that led a certain senior Meteorologist in the Met Office (now retired) to mention the 'B' word when being interviewed in 2009. As you again state, I think we'll take a 'rain-check' on this one .....

Martin.
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