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Unnecessary warning

PostPosted: 2013 Aug 24, 19:54
by greg_gruner
Yesterday a yellow warning was issued for heavy thundery rain in the south-east.
Here in Farnborough we managed the sum total of 2.6mm, with 2.3mm at Reading University. I'm sure that places further East, such as London, had more rain. But looking at the lightning detection on the Met Office website, it didn't seem that there was any today.
Obviously a very tricky forecast, with hot air brought up ahead of an approaching front. So my sympathies are with the forecasters. Nevertheless, in the eyes of the public, it will be seen as a poor forecast and an unnecessary warning.

Re: Unnecessary warning

PostPosted: 2013 Aug 24, 22:25
by Len Wood
Thundery may be it was n't, but some places in the east had serious rain.

Do these pictures not deserve a warning? ... ng-images/

The large area the warning covered was just a reflection of the spatial uncertainty in the forecast.

Re: Unnecessary warning

PostPosted: 2013 Aug 25, 13:49
by greg_gruner
I stand corrected!
It seems it was only the extreme east that had the very heavy rainfall. And I think the uncertainty made it impossible to be more precise

Re: Unnecessary warning

PostPosted: 2013 Aug 27, 14:12
by Julian Mayes
While I would agree that there are sometimes unnecessary warnings, perhaps especially in the South East, last weekend's was pretty spot-on - I'm speaking generally, without any axe to grind in respect of any particular forecast providers. The plume of rain that moved south across west London gave daily totals locally in excess of 25mm with hourly totals of around 9mm at midday - that has not happened here for a long time! With frontal rain aligned north-south (or nnw-sse) it is not that surprising that Farborough found itself just beyond the serious rain. People in Norfolk and NE Suffolk might have been more disappointed at the lack of rain - this area seems to have been extremely dry in recent months. By evening, seeing that the western edge of the rain was aligned near the M1 motorway, that was a pretty good fit with the forecasts and warnings.

regards Julian

Re: Unnecessary warning

PostPosted: 2013 Sep 04, 09:55
by Scott Whitehead
Rather late reply to this but anyway... Considering the rainfall totals for my location and further east I thought, for once, the warning should have actually been orange. The 09-09 rain total in my locality was 32.8mm which, going back to 1961, makes it a Top 25 event. As Julian mentioned rainfall totals like that are extremely rare in this part of the UK