Atlantic waking up

Forecasts, comments about forecasts, your own forecasts

Atlantic waking up

Postby Martin Rowley » 2013 Sep 13, 08:23

... like this forum, the Atlantic has been notably quiet until a few weeks ago: showing signs of some energy as we descend into autumn with the deep depression coming out of the Denmark Strait over this weekend and producing high winds across at least the north of Britain/Ireland. However of more (speculative?) interest is that Hurricane Humberto, which is wandering reasonably harmlessly between the Cape Verde and Azores groups, is forecast to retain sufficient character to possibly impact our weather just after the Equinox. The images attached (I hope) show the satellite image this morning and the ECMWF forecast for the 23rd. I've seen products that indicate that the ex-Humberto feature could be even close to the SW Approaches by that lead time ... but given that it hasn't finished doing what its doing in the sub-tropics, almost anything is possible!

Humbert.jpg
Humbert.jpg (87.06 KiB) Viewed 1801 times
Humbert.jpg
Humbert.jpg (87.06 KiB) Viewed 1801 times
Attachments
EC_Humbert.jpg
EC_Humbert.jpg (57.65 KiB) Viewed 1801 times
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset [ altitude: 17 m/56' ]
NGR SU 082 023: postcode BH22 0GB
50deg49min15secN, 01deg53min03secW
Martin Rowley
 
Posts: 154
Joined: 2011 Nov 25, 12:54

Re: Atlantic waking up

Postby Martin Rowley » 2013 Sep 13, 08:30

... not sure why there are two copies of the satellite image ... obviously something I've done but don't know what: they are exactly the same.

Martin.
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset [ altitude: 17 m/56' ]
NGR SU 082 023: postcode BH22 0GB
50deg49min15secN, 01deg53min03secW
Martin Rowley
 
Posts: 154
Joined: 2011 Nov 25, 12:54

Re: Atlantic waking up

Postby greg_gruner » 2013 Sep 13, 11:57

As the jet stream forecast is west to east across the northern UK, I would guess that any remnants of Humberto will pass to the north of the UK. But it's early days and things might change!

According to NOAA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0849.shtml?) Humberto is forecast to weaken but then restrengthen as it moves north. But keeping well to the west, at least as far as the 18th (5-day outlook is their furthest ahead).

Only one hurricane so far this season, though at least until late Aug the forecasts were maintained for an active season! Still could happen, but less and less likely as time goes on, I think.
Greg Gruner
Farnborough, Hampshire
greg_gruner
 
Posts: 224
Joined: 2012 Feb 04, 17:28


Return to Forecasts



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron