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Developments: Friday 28FEB2014

PostPosted: 2014 Feb 26, 10:18
by Martin Rowley
[I've put the following in a new 'forecasting' forum - it might be of interest here; especially as it will 'top-up' the winter rainfall totals before the meteorological season comes to a close at 0900 GMT on the 1st March]

... the models such as GFS and EC have been indicating that 'something' of a running weakness would travel swiftly either along the Channel or across southern England for some time - the GFS 5 or 6 days ago had a full-blown well-developed low grazing the south coast with cold air sufficient to cause problems with snow - the EC when it came within range was more cautious but the clues were there.

Now we're just 48 hours or so away, all the models are converging on the expected 'preferred' solution which at the least looks as if it will top up our local winter rainfall to 600+ mm [event total for us here in south Wessex 8 to 15 mm], the seasonal total worthy of the uplands of Dartmoor, Snowdonia or Cumbria. In addition, there's a useful 'cutting-in' of cold air (with temporary strong/gusty wind phase) as the low runs away east - probably not too dramatic across lowland areas, but Salisbury Plain, Chilterns, Cotswolds, etc., might have more problems with 'wintry' PPN.

But going back to my first paragraph, it's most impressive that these models are now producing such features which give good (excellent?) guidance so far ahead.